How much is DJ going to fall

My friend and I just talked about how much lower dow jones is going to fall. It is interesting how our modern economy is going to manifest in front of us. Every economy has its up and down. Could we really have an economy which could withstand the test of time? Could the American economy be the one? Everyone would try to believe so.

What makes our economy special, apart from those of the old great dynasties/kingdoms/nations? Look at the Roman, and the Chinese. They were the biggest economy of their times; yet people of their time, with their limited horizon, would never imagine their kingdoms would ever end. Or, their economy would deteriorate and their government be overthrown. For those with longer horizon of time would know that great economies did exist and fall. As a human nature, we evoluted to be optimistic. They, at that time, would think they were different. They thought they could withstand the test of time. Yet, they all failed.

Did we, Americans, think the same way? In the last century, we became the most powerful country in the world. We have the greatest military with the most advanced technology. We have advanced our understand so much that we can prevent the next biggest Depression; or collapse of our economy by tweaking the economy as it is a machine.

Obviously, we did not. In previous centuries, we studied the astromony and managed to predict how celestial objects behave. They were governed by Physics. Yet, human behavior is not. It might be predictable. But obviously, we have not be able to predict it well enough to understand it. We might be able to foresee many different scenarioes. Yet, we won't have enough political will to act onto it until the very end.

I hope the American is not going to collapse into chaos. However, we are definitely going to suffer a lot of pain. Unfortunately, we are developing a global economy. What has been happening is already have a ripple effect in China and Eastern Europe.

So, back to my friend's question - "How much more is it going to drop"? I don't think anybody in the world would know for the following reasons:
1) global asset inflation in the last decade is rapidly deflating, and is still deflating.
2) deleveraging is everywhere; seeing no sign of stopping.
3) everyone - corporations and consumers alike - is repairing their own balance sheet because of the the asset deflation and leverage that they waged.
4) consumption is weak; and export driven economy was suffering. China is already experiencing significant contraction at their manufacturing sectors. How can they still maintain the tight grip of the people and control the unrest due to the deteriorationg of their living standards?
5) how can the people in Eastern European countries could afford their dollar-dominated loans when their currencies have been depreciated?
6) how much would social unrest in developing countries develop?
7) how many government could survive?

I don't think we are getting the point that social unrest would become the focal point of our lives. I definitely don't hope it would get down to that point. But I seriously think it's where we might be heading. If we are actually destined to get there, DJ 7000 would be by any standard.